Analyst forecasts 5.8 percent growth in 2012 boat sales

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A Wells Fargo Securities analyst is projecting that new-boat sales in the U.S. boat industry will rise by 5.8 percent this year.

The statement came from analyst Timothy Conder, who cited in a report this morning the Statistical Surveys sales numbers for September, based on figures from 22 early-reporting states, which show powerboat sales increasing 0.3 percent for the month from last year.

“We continue to believe the industry outlook and visibility for an ongoing U.S. marine market recovery in 2013 would be enhanced once the (1) tax (2) fiscal and (3) regulatory environment issues are more constructively addressed post-November election,” Conder wrote.

Brunswick Corp.’s “significant restructuring, industry-leading and improved dealer network, product whitespace” — or growth in areas in which the company sees potential — and its international expansion in areas that include Brazil, will more than offset the domestic market’s skew toward small and mid-sized boats, Conder wrote.

Sales of aluminum boats above 16 feet increased 3.6 percent year over year in September. Outboard fiberglass boats between 11 and 40 feet were up 1.2 percent in that time frame and sterndrive/inboard boats between 14 and 30 feet were down 8.7 percent.

The Brunswick Boat Group recently announced that it will stop production and sales of the Bayliner Boats line of cruisers in the United States while ramping up production in that segment at its newly built Brazil plant. The company also will further consolidate manufacturing by shutting its Knoxville, Tenn., plant.

Sales of fiberglass cruisers 31-40 feet fell 15 percent, or six boats, year over year in September and tracked a 9 percent dip, or 81 boats, for the year.

The brand plans to enter into the jetboat segment in 2013 and “in the next few months” will launch a line called “Element,” which Brunswick touts as Bayliner’s “newest concept in affordable boating.”

Bayliner also plans to launch a new line of bowriders and a new series of deckboats in the coming months.

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Comments

3 comments on “Analyst forecasts 5.8 percent growth in 2012 boat sales

  1. Curtis

    So let me get this straight, sales in most categories are down and have been down and this guy is estimating a 5.8 increase overall. He should go into politics, they come up with fake numbers on a regular basis also.
    My estimate is anything with fiberglass will be down 10%, aluminum fishing will be up 4%, pontoons will be up 6%. Lets see who is closer at the end of next year.

  2. Boatman

    Curtis,
    you are correct the outcome is unsure that’s a fact. The election will determine the fate of the economic conditions, and the programs to follow or the ones to continue will forecast some markets. If jobs are created,there will be an upsurge in sales, because more money available to spend. The aluminum markets are going up simply by new players in that market with competitive pricing. Niche markets in certain markets and models will be up, but a small increases. Brunswick is getting into the Jet market, and the Previous leader is dropping out. Doesn’t make sense unless somebody knows something…. on either side. Brunswick has never been successful in the Jet markets, but without any real competition…… maybe they feel they can sell some.

    Keep tracking them :))

  3. andrew

    Curtis,
    Aluminum pontoons are up 21% YTD through Sept while aluminum fishing are up 10% ytd. Fiberglass boats are up 7% YTD. The only way it’s LOWER than 5.8% is if we drop off a major cliff in Oct-Dec, which aren’t really boat selling months, anyway, so not likely to move the needle much. If anything, Wells Fargo is too low! These are units, remember, not dollars.

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