I'm an entrepreneur with a solution to the industry problem - falling sales!

It begins with a new style boat, a completely revamped business model and the belief that the market is larger then what most industry insiders see.  There is more non-customers then traditional boat customers out there - lots more.  I look beyond the traditional market of fisherman, water skiers and cruisers. I greatly expand the market!

My offering increases not only customer value but also reseller value and I do it at a lower structure. My solution offers the opportunity to create the first truely global brand!

My problem: Very bad investment cliamate.

The solution: I need someone who sees my vision.

Too narrow or too broad of a view ("smoothed") is dangerous.  Last year production was way down for all manufacturers and dealers were clearing floors with a fire sale mentality.  As a result, dealer inventory last year was higher than this year.

Last January, whatever boat you wanted was available, and at a great deal.  Buy in January, Take delivery and warranty register in January, and the sale shows up in January's numbers.

With dealers holding fewer boats in inventory due to floorplan restrictions and fear, the formula is put a deposit in January, order/locate the boat, take delivery and warranty register in spring, and in spring, the sale shows up in the numbers.  In both cases, the buying activity took place in January, but the sales show up in different months.

Also, have buyers gone away, or are they waiting.  People are holding on to thier money longer.  I live in NH and have been a boater for 20 years.  My boat WILL be in the water this year.  I WILL need all the accessories, insurances, maintenance, supplies, etc. I have needed in past years.  However, while I normally take care of maintenance items and buy supplies in the winter, I don't plan on doing that till closer to the season, say late april or may.  If I was looking to spend $50,000 on a new boat, I definitely would be looking now, but not buying till spring to put off the cash outlay.  Again, the deposit might happen in January, but the sale doesn't show up until spring.

While the decreased sales numbers are alarming, we need to know what is happenning overall and adjust our marketing approach to meet the needs of as many buyers as possible.

Successful manufacturers analyze all data available, as well as communicating with thier retailers to find out what is really happenning.  The old adage "if it can't be measured, it can't be improved" is true, however, make sure you know what you are measuring, buying trends, or delivery trends, because there will be seasonal fluctuations in both.

At the gut level, my observations of the boat shows are decreased vendor participation, reduced floor space, reduced hours, but increased consumer interest.  The only thing that really matters in that equation is consumer interest.

Guys,

Percentage change is always calculated by comparing the same period last year to the same period this year. In this case January 2010 is being compared to January 2009.

Year over year numbers will smooth out the high and lows. When the market is declining, YOY numbers will make the declines look smaller. When the market is growing, YOY numbers will make the growth look smaller. I prefer to look at comparisons without the smoothing. Everybody is entitled to their preference. Call me anytime Al, and I'll give you the YOY numbers for the reporting period.

Aarn,

How do these numbers compare with January 2009?  Year over year comparisons are more meaningful due to our seasonality.

Even though we all know the recession isn't over and that it's going to be another subpar year, I think the weather has skewed these numbers.  I bet you will see a big jump in Feb/March.