World Bank: Global GDP Will Fall 5.2% in 2020, but Rebound by 4.2% in 2021

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The World Bank is forecasting a 5.2 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product in 2020, following 2.4 percent growth in 2019.

That would be the worst contraction in worldwide growth since the aftermath of World War II, wrote Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers in a monthly report detailing trends.

World Bank economists predict a 6.1 percent decline in U.S. GDP in 2020, and forecast China to grow by 1 percent for the year.

The Eurozone is expected to contract by 9.1 percent.

However, the World Bank predicts a rebound in 2021, with worldwide GDP growth jumping 4.2 percent — the United States economy is forecast to expand 4 percent next year; China is expected to return to 6.9 percent growth; and Europe is predicted to grow 4.5 percent.

Manufacturing data suggests that manufacturers are “cautiously upbeat for a rebound in production over the next six months, albeit with very modest growth,” wrote Moutray.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rebounded a bit, from 39.6 in April to 42.4 in May.

“Overall, the sector continues to cope with severe operational and demand disruptions worldwide due to covid-19, with activity still declining sharply despite some progress,” wrote Moutray.

New orders for the month rose from 31.5 to 36.3, output was up from 32.5 to 39.2, and employment edged up from 41.5 to 43.2.

The index for future output moved to 52.1 from 47.1 — the first time that index had dipped below 50 since it was introduced in July 2012, said Moutray. 

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