NOAA expects increase in hurricane activity

Publish date:
Atlantic update pie chart 2019

Just after Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science said earlier this week that it expects a reduction in hurricane activity this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration countered with its own report. NOAA said that it expects increased activity in the next few months.

“Conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended,” said a NOAA statement. Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45 percent, from the original 30 percent prediction in May. The likelihood of near-normal activity is at 35 percent and the chance of below-normal activity has been lowered to 20 percent.

NOAA now predicts 10 to 17 named events with winds stronger than 39 mph and is expecting that between five and nine of those will become hurricanes with winds stronger than 74 mph. Up to four of those storms will be “major hurricanes” with winds of 111 mph or more. The outlook extends through November 30. Colorado State predicted 12 named storms and six hurricanes.

“NOAA will continue to deliver the information that the public depends on before, during and after any storms throughout the hurricane season,” Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. and acting NOAA administrator, said in the statement. “Armed with our next-generation satellites, sophisticated weather models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and the expertise of our forecasters, we are prepared to keep communities informed to help save lives and livelihoods.”

NOAA announced that the El Nino condition in the Pacific Ocean ended and neutral conditions have returned.

“El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead,” Gerry Bell, Ph.D, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in the statement. “This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year.”


Tommy’s Slalom Shop Adds Dealer

Boulder Boats has locations in Nevada, Arizona and California.

Trade Only Today Returns Tuesday

The daily e-newsletter will not publish Monday, Jan. 18, in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Mercury and Crownline Make Supply Pact

Under the agreement, Mercury will be the exclusive outboard and sterndrive supplier for the boatbuilder.

Sea Tow Makes Executive Appointment

Thomas Spina, who has more than 25 years of maritime experience in a variety of roles, was named vice president of franchise operations.

Quick Hits: January 15, 2021

IBEX seeks proposals for session topics; Sensible Yacht Cordage changes hands

Godfrey Marine to Host Virtual Showcase

The event is to take place Jan. 23 and will include Godfrey pontoons and Hurricane deckboats.

Boat Shows Throttling Up

2021 is bringing a new paradigm to the winter boat show season.

Correct Craft Plans Expansions

The moves will allow additional growth for Nautique, Supreme, Ingenity and Watershed Innovation.