The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also said today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize.
Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season - June 1 to Nov. 30 - NOAA's updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin) 14 to 20 named storms, including eight to 12 hurricanes and four to six major hurricanes.
These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared with the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.
"All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "As we've seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record."